Upcoming seminars at IEA
Friday, 13/3, 13:15-14:30 in M:IEA (seminar-room)
"Consumption management in the Nord Pool region: A Stability Analysis"
Erik Lindström, Mathematical Statistics, LTH
Integration of fluctuating renewables like wind and solar power is nowadays a
hot topic, but this comes at a cost of decreased stability of the power system. The
deterioration often translates into so-called spikes and drops in the electricity spot
price, very large (even extreme) deviations from the regular spot price, followed
by a reversion to roughly the original level a few days later. We use the spikes
and drops as an strong indication that there is an imbalance in the physical power
system in this paper.
Independent SpikeModels (ISM) is a popular class of models for the electricity
spot price that uses regime switching, typically having three regimes (base regime,
spikes and drops). We fit a such model to Nord Pool spot data to characterize
the size and intensity of these deviations, and proceed by augmenting the standard
second generation, three factor Independent Spike Model by relating the spike and
drop intensity to several factors and find strong statistical support for relating the
consumption to the spike and drop intensity.
The model is then used to quantitatively evaluate the effects when modifying
the consumption in order to mimic how additional renewables are integrated into
the power system or conversely the effects when smoothing consumption using
strategies that can be implemented in smart grids. We use this tool to obtain a di28
rect measure of how much the spike and drop intensity can be reduced by smooth29
ing the consumption and see that even a small increase in the variability of the
consumption translates into decreased stability (more spikes and/or drops) of the
Seminars are held in the IEA lecture room, ground floor in southeastern corner of the M-building, unless stated otherwise.
Seminar Announcer:Finn Landegren.